Winter is Coming – for E-com too?

E-com winter is something that has been discussed and predicted for several months already. Let us clarify this term and align it with our national situation. These steps are crucial for proper comprehension of the situation and further steps e-com takes from there.

Well, basically winter implies downturn. There is winter in crypto-land, there is as much e-com winter, and this process always has a particular percentage of those companies that become a so-called ‘locus of weakness’ – to be more precise, those that suffer first and more from the downturn in comparison with others. Currently, there happens a massive downturn from the heights acquired and established within the pandemic period even in such giants as Amazon and PayPal. Nonetheless, such a perspective seems reliable only when the analysis is conducted within a rather short period of time, namely, when the outcomes of current performance and indexes are compared only to the same period in 2021, but not earlier – up to pre-pandemic era. When the latter period is taken into consideration, it becomes obvious that current indexes are quite similar to those of pre-pandemic activities. Hence, when the perspective is prolonged enough to see a more objective picture, it looks not as a downturn and not as the next e-com winter, but rather as a market correction. Quite ‘natural’ and even expected under the given circumstances.

Having clarified that, it is crucial to highlight that e-com winter is often a term that is used in an unjustified and hyperbolized manner. As a result, the actions and decisions made relying on such premises can be either excessive and lacking relevant targets, or hasty and incongruent. Furthermore, it is crucial to remind readers at this stage about the need to upscale their models, design and strategic approaches – as well as solutions and aspects of product line – in accordance to contemporary expectations, demands and needs. Otherwise, downturn is a matter of time regardless overall situation on the market.

Concerning the national e-com domain, it is relevant to underline that winter is not a proper term to be applied to contemporary reality on the national scale. Despite the temptation to align the indexes of e-com performance with the global trends, it is more effective to analyze the national situation and identify individual risks, pitfalls and influential factors. The winter might happen eventually, but one should also remember about falling back to long-term trend under such circumstances, which is regarded as a good progress.